Sunday, November 20, 2005

NFL Draft: 2006...Another QB Sweepstakes??



It can pretty much be assumed that the first pick in the first round is 99% of the time going to be a QB, a RB, or even a WR. Every now and then you get a first pick that comes out of nowhere like Orlando Pace (offensive lineman for the St. Louis Rams), but generally speaking the first pick usually goes to the three positions I mentioned above. This coming NFL draft is going to be no different than the norm, however, I do think that a lot of people are going to be surprised by the first picks. Here is why...


Right now the Houston Texans are in last place with a 1-9 record. I am no psychic, but I can pretty much assure you that they will probably have the first pick in the NFL draft this coming spring. The Teams in contentions for the second and third pick are the Saints, Jets, and the 49er's who are all 2-8. The Packers arent too far off with a 2-7 record. The next worst record after those is the Baltimore Ravens (sigh...tear) with a 3-7 record. Now, lets assume that the NFL Draft order will look like this:

Texans, Jets, Saints, 49ers, Packers, and the Ravens. Those are the top six picks in the NFL Draft...and there are SO many incredible athletes coming out of college this year.

Everyone thinks that the number one pick is going to be Matt Leinart, the QB from USC. But I dont think he will go first. I think that the Texans will take Reggie Bush, RB from USC, as their first pick and the first pick in the NFL Draft. Why? The Texans have David Carr already. He is young, he is going to be a good QB in the NFL and the Texans havent really surrounded Carr with a whole lot of talent offensively. The Texan's number one RB right now, Domanick Davis, is also going to become a free agent at the end of the year. Don't expect the Texans to re-sign him. He has been unproductive and injury prone since they signed him in 2003. I think adding a RB of Reggie Bush's caliber to the Texans will alleviate some of the pressure on Carr and open up their passing game much more.

So, now onto the second pick from the New York Jets. The Jet's franchise invested a lot into Chad Pennington. Pennington had the potential to be one of the better passing QB's in the NFL along with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, but Pennington cant seem to shake season ending injuries..he is done. He may not be done entirely, but I can guarantee you that the Jets are going to draft a QB and Matt Leinart is the perfect candidate for the Jet's organization. I would expect the Jets to draft Leinart and start him as a rookie and let him get into the mix of things in the NFL. Leinart will be a solid QB for the Jet's organization.

The Saints are an interesting picture. Aaron Brooks is a roller-coaster QB who always puts up solid numbers at the QB position, and is definitely one of the more mobile QB's in the NFL, but for some reason Brooks lacks that spark that can get the Saint's offense into gear and winning games. Their defense doesnt help matters much either, which is why I think that the Saints could go one of two ways. They could draft another QB who will rid the bench until Brook's contract is up or they could draft a defensive star to regain some sort of defensive control in games. I think the latter is more of a viable option for the Saints. I can sincerely see the New Orleans Saints drafting the defensive end from Penn State, Tamba Hali, or perhaps one of the many sick linebackers coming out this year in the draft like AJ Hawk from Ohio State, Chad Greenway from Iowa, Pierre Woods from Michigan, DeMeco Ryans from Alabama, or maybe even my boy D'Qwell Jackson from Maryland. If they did decide to go with an offensive player I could see them drafting Vince Young from Texas or maybe Omar Jacobs from Bowling Green for a future QB.

Next on my list of predictions is the 49ers. They picked Alex Smith last year, so they dont need another QB. What doesnt this team need though? They have decent linebackers, their secondary is shaky, their best D-Lineman is Bryant Young who has been in the league for 11 seasons now. I definitely can see the 49ers taking a defensive player as their first pick. If they did go with an offensive pick the only two positions I could see them going after are a receiver or a RB. So, maybe Santonio Holmes from Ohio State or Mike Haas from Oregon State for a WR? As far as a RB perhaps DeAngelo Williams from Memphis who is averaging 180 yards per game or Laurence Maroney from Minnesota. I think that those would be their best options, but ultimately I think that the 49ers need to pick a top defensive player.

The Green Bay Packers are probably one of the most respected teams in the NFL, if not the most respected team in the NFL. Favre is one of the best QB's to play the game, which is fantastic for their first round pick of Aaron Rogers last year because he gets to watch and learn from one of the greatest to play the game. The Packer's have receivers in Driver and Walker. They have a RB, Ahman Green, if they can keep him healthy, and they have a good O-Line. If the Packers picked an offensive player it would probably be a RB because of Green being inconsistent with his health. The Packers could take Williams from Memphis, or Maroney from Minnesota, or possibly Adrian Peterson from Oklahoma (though I doubt he will come out because he is only a junior and can definitely make a run for the Heisman next year).

With the sixth pick this year the Baltimore Ravens absolutely need to get a QB with some sort of presence on the field. Boller is a joke and Anthony Wright is a decent back up, but not a starting QB. The Raven's defense is rivaled as one of the best in the NFL and will be next year as well, their offensive line is stacked, their receivers are solid, and their running backs are always a threat. Jamal Lewis is having a terrible year, so that poses some thoughts on whether or not he will return in Baltimore next year, but I doubt the Ravens organization will give away a running back who in 2003 rushed for 2066 yards and 14 TD's. Whenever a team plays the Ravens they look to stop the run because they have no passing threat, so Lewis is going to have a tough time in every game until the Ravens get a passing threat. Ergo, they will draft a QB this year in the Draft. Kellen Clemens from Oregon is a good idea, Tyler Palko from Pitt is a good idea, Reggie McNeal from Texas A&M is a fantastic idea, and so is Brad Smith from Missouri. Being that the Ravens are a power run style of team I think that having a QB with good pocket passing capabilities will suit them a little better which is why I think they will go after someone with pocket presence like Tom Brady and the like. Brady Quinn from Notre Dame looks good...but so did Rick Mirer...so who knows how Quinn could turn out...Drew Olsen from UCLA looks good too. The Ravens will definitely draft a QB this year...they fucking better...haha.

Well folks, thats all I have for now.

Enjoy your spaghetti.

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